Rana Banerji headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency. You can e-mail the author at rbanerji49@gmail.com
The last word may not have been said on the churnings within the Pakistan army or the extent to which army chief General Asim Munir is in control, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RAW, India's external intelligence agency.
His disqualification to participate in future elections may follow, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RA&W, India's external intelligence agency.
Aware of simmering dissensions within the top echelons of the army, Munir has moved slowly in reshuffling senior generals, observes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RA&W, India's external intelligence agency.
The military establishment is in no mood to forgive or forget Imran's anti-military utterances, observes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RAW, India's external intelligence agency.
Learning perhaps from the Kargil debacle, Musharraf tried hard to evolve as a statesman in his dealings with India, recalls Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RA&W.
It could be part of a deliberate strategy to heal divisions within and restore the Pakistan army's image, explains Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RA&W.
If General Asim Munir, Pakistan's new army chief, wants to help defuse the current polarised atmosphere and shepherd civilian politicians towards negotiations on an acceptable date for elections, he may need to distance himself from any perception of needless hostility to Imran Khan, explains Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RA&W, India's external intelligence agency.
The rather amateurish, even ham-handed, attack would lend some credence to a 'false flag' theory, of the PTI leadership staging this incident, to provide new impetus to a flagging agitation, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RAW, India's external intelligence agency.
Significantly, these 12 officers would form a major part of the team that the new army chief will inherit, observes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RA&W, India's external intelligence agency.
Another extension for General Bajwa in office at this juncture looks unlikely at this juncture, observes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
The timing of these transfers, while being projected as routine, is significant in both strategic and political terms, asserts Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
as journalists active in Pakistani media have been quick to point out, with Ghafoor at the helm in Balochistan, no one will take seriously any claims by the civilian leadership to use the velvet glove to work for peace there, points out Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.He did not hesitate to pejorate developments in India at the slightest opportunity, points out Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
India will need to watch carefully and understand the new round of instability and uncertainty in Pakistan, while charting the course of its future diplomatic initiatives, points out Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
No prime minister in Pakistan's recent history has survived long in office after appointing an ISI chief who did not have the army chief's confidence. Imran may be no exception, observes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing.
Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, who has been replaced as ISI chief, will remain in the forefront of Pakistani initiatives in Afghanistan as also in the peace talks with the Tehrik e Taliban, Pakistan. He will also get a year plus to serve in a corps command, remaining in the race for selection as the next army chief when General Bajwa retires in November 2022, explains Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing.
Despite persisting questions among peer officers in the army about his professional competence and ethics, after his recent 'triumphal' Kabul sojourn, Faiz Hameed remains the hot favourite of both General Bajwa and Prime Minister Imran Khan, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing.
Despite dependence on the ISI for years of sustenance, Taliban leaders may harbour resentment over the ISI's excessive control, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing.
There were reports of lobbying within the Pakistan army for the ISI DG's post, which falls vacant in June, reveals Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
It would be realistic to see India's position on the DGMOs joint statement more as 'engagement, different from dialogue', where our subsequent options could be decided depending on the realities of the situation on the ground, notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
India should remember that Pakistan-Saudi Arabia relations will remain special due, not least, to bonds of all Muslims with The Holy Land. They would also be strategic enough, irrespective of whether the ambassador is a military man or a career civilian appointee., notes Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
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